THE TARGET VALUE PROPOSITION
Understanding the Determinants of Company Value & Value Creation
A Curated Journey
Purpose & Disclaimer
The goal of TVP is to provide business owners with a better understanding of the determinants of firm value and value creation, not to make owners valuation experts. TVP is an educational effort based upon grounded financial theory and the experience of practitioners. In short, the focus is on improving basic knowledge that might enhance an owner’s understanding and decisions regarding firm value. TVP is not a substitute for a competent contracted valuation professional.
Business Valuation is a complex topic that owners should not undertake except with professional expertise that they engage. No information or discussion by TVP is intended to be specific advice for an owner’s unique situation.
INTRODUCTION TO THE TARGET VALUE PROPOSITION
The Target Value Proposition: The General Concept
The Target Value Proposition (TVP) considers business firm value and value creation from a “first principles” of corporate finance, financial statements, and valuation analytics perspective. TVP is grounded in financial theory and empirical experience where firm value (FV) results from and is measured by the operational performance of the firm, most of which is within the owners’ control.
TVP is a comprehensive analytical model and methodology that examines a firm’s key drivers of value: leadership, managerial performance, operational optimization, governance structure and resiliency. The analysis eliminates the confusion caused by the misconceptions, inaccuracies, hearsay, and myths that surround firm value by focusing on the insight-noise ratio, where noise is present in copious quantities and insights are few. Noise is considered any distraction from the focus on the key drivers of firm value so that insights can emerge. Once insights surface attention can be focused on managerial and process improvements that can enhance value creation.
Point of Departure: The Business Owners
TVP starts with what an owner desires from a sale of a business, or what TVP calls the desired price (DP). Using the classical Multiple of EBITDA Model (MOE), an implied value (IV) is determined. Typically, a gap may exist between the implied value and the desired price. TVP then focuses on what it will take in terms of firm performance to make the firm’s IV closer to the owner’s DP.
The TVP process compels owners to be realistic and objective about the value of the firm and to reconsider the DP as the owner comes to understand and appreciate that the multiple may be outside the owner’s control, but EBITDA is within the owner’s control.
To get from the MOE IV to a higher IV requires building a more robust EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization) with a focus on improving all firm Key Performance Indicators (KPI) to improve company performance.
TVP uses a curated journey metaphor to methodically guide the reader through the basic concepts of firm value and provide insights into how they are connected and apply in practice.
The TVP Curated Journey
The TVP process takes the business owner through a curated journey of business valuation and financial concepts. Importantly, this approach attempts to provide a focus on the true sources of firm valuation and mitigate the “noise” caused by misinformation, rumors, and myths that surround the subject of firm value. A “Road Map” to the TVP Curated Journey provides the path, key concepts, and order in which the subjects are discussed.
Before the journey begins, it is helpful to acknowledge some of the “mental models” that are relevant in thinking conceptually about firm value.
Applied Mental Models
The TVP process of firm value uses a variety of mental models to help orient business owners to gain greater understanding of the process of determining firm value. Such models include, but are not limited to:
- Well-run Company Model
- Noise / Insight Problem Model
- Supply & Demand Model
- Fair Market Value Model
- Classic Multiple of EBITDA Model
- Efficient Market Model
- Human Behavior Model
- Glass Onion Model
TVP uses models to make the complex and detailed valuation dynamics more understandable, Of course, it is acknowledged and understood that assumptions on which models are based are dynamic, which may impact insights gained from model outcomes.
The TVP Curated Journey Map
The TVP Curated Journey Road Map has many touch points, but the journey is not a straight line. It is part highway, byway, back streets and stops along the way. It is a circuitous and “round-about” exploration and iterative process.
A major problem resolved by the TVP journey is that readers commonly navigate through vast amounts of information on their own, increasing confusion while never arriving at the clear destination of understanding firm value.
The Target Value Proposition Journey Map
Ports of Call
POC 1. Noise
The first port of call on the journey is to acknowledge and explore the problem of “Noise.”
TVP defines “noise” as any distraction to running the business at an optimum level. We will explore internal and external noise and how those distractions may impede company performance and, as a result, firm value.
POC 2. Discounted Cash Flows
Valuation methodologies are rooted in the concept of discounted cash flow. Any excursion in finance and firm value would be incomplete without an exploration of this basic financial concept. All TVP concepts are rooted in discounted cash flow.
POC 3. Cost of Capital
Cost of Capital, the third port of call, is a foundationally important financial concept, where an understanding of an investor’s point of view is explored in depth. Cost of capital has a “gravitational pull or influence” on firm valuation.
POC 4. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation & Amortization)
The fourth port of call is cash flow, the touch stone of valuation methodologies, and business in general. EBITDA is widely used in practice as a convenient “proxy” for a company’s cash flow, as a going concern. EBITDA will be explored regarding what it represents and how, once fully understood, owners can use EBITDA to obtain an indication of company value and value creation. Its use in practice and criticisms of EBITDA will also be explored.
POC 5. Multiples
The concept of multiples is our fifth stop. The subject of multiples has become a common discussion topic among business owners (everyone wants a high one). Multiples will be explored and explained from a perspective of reality (what is really going on) and how multiples are connected to and constrained by an investor’s cost of capital.
POC 6. Leadership (Stewardship), Operational Excellence, Governance & Resilience
All stops have led to this point, where the value creation journey extends beyond the numbers, understanding that firm value is created at the confluence of Leadership, Operational Excellence, Governance & Resilience.